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Plug-in hybrid cars emit almost 5x greater global warming emissions than official figures indicate, as per a recent analysis.

Widening Gap Between Lab and Real-World Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit just one-fifth lower CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel cars, based on analysis carried out by a non-profit organization. This differs sharply with laboratory estimates, which suggested a 75% reduction in pollution.

Researchers studied information from onboard fuel consumption monitors of 800,000 vehicles registered in the EU from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than lab estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while lab-reported figures are decreasing,” stated a lead analyst involved in the study. “That gap is growing and poses a serious issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute almost as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Primary Reasons Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of miles driven in electric power relative to overall mileage. The team determined that just a quarter of travel was done in electric mode, whereas official estimates assumed over four-fifths.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, pollution levels were significantly higher than lab estimates. That occurred because electric motors were insufficiently powerful enough to function alone, leading to combustion motors burning fossil fuels for almost a third of the distance completed in electric mode.

Policy and Economic Consequences

Based on calculations, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed four major carmaker companies to escape over €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying compliance with European Union fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs would pay approximately €500 more per year in operating expenses than would be estimated under lab tests.

“The bold statements that manufacturers like to make about their plug-in hybrid vehicles are obviously far from the mark,” commented a automotive analyst. “Consumers are being duped into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and cutting money. In reality, PHEVs are little better than regular petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel use, CO₂ production, and running expenses.”

Political Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Plug-in hybrid vehicles have lately been brought back into political debates as carmakers have lobbied the EU to relax CO₂ standards. A planned ban on new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the car industry and opposition from EU countries with significant car manufacturing.

Some high-level officials have proposed PHEVs as a potential “compromise” solution to include in the regulation.

An external energy economics expert, who was not involved with the research, described the report a “very useful contribution” after years in which parts of the automotive sector argued there was insufficient information to properly evaluate actual emissions.

“These findings show, without question, that the gap between official and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is much, much larger than for petrol or conventional cars,” they said. “Any policy adjustments regarding PHEVs should be implemented with extreme caution and considering that data.”