🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."